{
  "author": {
    "name": "Dylan Fitzgerald",
    "url": "https://dylanfitzgerald.net/"
  },
  "blyg": "0.4",
  "changelog": [
    {
      "at": "2022-07-13T02:44:00Z",
      "note": "Imported from the Ctrl+Shift archive",
      "version": 1
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  "content_html": "\u003ch1\u003eConsultant\u0026#39;s toolbox: include your confidence level with your estimates\u003c/h1\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eDifferent professions, upbringings, and roles lead people to use and understand the same terms in different ways. When crossing these boundaries, you need to get everyone on the same page in terms of understanding (if not necessarily agreement).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFor example, let\u0026rsquo;s talk estimates\u003csup id=\"fnref:1\"\u003e\u003ca href=\"https://dylanfitzgerald.net/blog/include_confidence_with_estimates/#fn:1\" class=\"footnote-ref\" role=\"doc-noteref\"\u003e1\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/sup\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2 id=\"same-words-different-meaning\"\u003eSame words, different meaning\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u0026ldquo;When will X be done?\u0026rdquo;, the product manager asks the engineer. \u0026ldquo;In about five days!\u0026rdquo;, says the engineer.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWhen do each of them believe X will be done?\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe engineer typically thinks they\u0026rsquo;re saying that X will be done in about five days, give or take some, if there\u0026rsquo;s no surprises. That\u0026rsquo;s an \u0026ldquo;on average, if nothing blows up or takes priority\u0026rdquo;.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe product manager typically hears that X will almost certainly be done in five days or less.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2 id=\"who-s-right\"\u003eWho\u0026rsquo;s right?\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eBoth of them. Neither.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe actual meaning here got lost in translation. People are using terms and descriptors the same way most of their peers and colleagues do, not the way their actual audience expects.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch2 id=\"communicate-more-imply-less\"\u003eCommunicate more, imply less\u003c/h2\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHere\u0026rsquo;s the fix: ask for, and provide, both the estimate and \u003cspan class=\"underline\"\u003ewhat it actually means\u003c/span\u003e. \u0026ldquo;I think this will be done at day A with 50% confidence, and by day B with 90% confidence.\u0026rdquo;\u003csup id=\"fnref:2\"\u003e\u003ca href=\"https://dylanfitzgerald.net/blog/include_confidence_with_estimates/#fn:2\" class=\"footnote-ref\" role=\"doc-noteref\"\u003e2\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/sup\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eOftentimes, that\u0026rsquo;s the job: helping people bridge the different implications in their communications.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cdiv class=\"footnotes\" role=\"doc-endnotes\"\u003e\n\u003chr\u003e\n\u003col\u003e\n\u003cli id=\"fn:1\"\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWith apologies for \u0026ldquo;estimates\u0026rdquo;; I prefer \u0026ldquo;forecasts\u0026rdquo;, and greatly prefer escaping the set-scope-flexible-timebox trap, but this is the more common terminology and usage. And that\u0026rsquo;s what we\u0026rsquo;re here about today: making explicit what terminology means.\u0026#160;\u003ca href=\"https://dylanfitzgerald.net/blog/include_confidence_with_estimates/#fnref:1\" class=\"footnote-backref\" role=\"doc-backlink\"\u003e\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli id=\"fn:2\"\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003ca href=\"https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32059302\"\u003eThese numbers aren\u0026rsquo;t arbitrary.\u003c/a\u003e\u0026#160;\u003ca href=\"https://dylanfitzgerald.net/blog/include_confidence_with_estimates/#fnref:2\" class=\"footnote-backref\" role=\"doc-backlink\"\u003e\u0026#x21a9;\u0026#xfe0e;\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ol\u003e\n\u003c/div\u003e\n",
  "content_md": "# Consultant's toolbox: include your confidence level with your estimates\n\nDifferent professions, upbringings, and roles lead people to use and understand the same terms in different ways. When crossing these boundaries, you need to get everyone on the same page in terms of understanding (if not necessarily agreement).\n\nFor example, let's talk estimates[^fn:1].\n\n\n## Same words, different meaning {#same-words-different-meaning}\n\n\"When will X be done?\", the product manager asks the engineer. \"In about five days!\", says the engineer.\n\nWhen do each of them believe X will be done?\n\nThe engineer typically thinks they're saying that X will be done in about five days, give or take some, if there's no surprises. That's an \"on average, if nothing blows up or takes priority\".\n\nThe product manager typically hears that X will almost certainly be done in five days or less.\n\n\n## Who's right? {#who-s-right}\n\nBoth of them. Neither.\n\nThe actual meaning here got lost in translation. People are using terms and descriptors the same way most of their peers and colleagues do, not the way their actual audience expects.\n\n\n## Communicate more, imply less {#communicate-more-imply-less}\n\nHere's the fix: ask for, and provide, both the estimate and \u003cspan class=\"underline\"\u003ewhat it actually means\u003c/span\u003e. \"I think this will be done at day A with 50% confidence, and by day B with 90% confidence.\"[^fn:2]\n\nOftentimes, that's the job: helping people bridge the different implications in their communications.\n\n[^fn:1]: With apologies for \"estimates\"; I prefer \"forecasts\", and greatly prefer escaping the set-scope-flexible-timebox trap, but this is the more common terminology and usage. And that's what we're here about today: making explicit what terminology means.\n[^fn:2]: [These numbers aren't arbitrary.](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32059302)",
  "created": "2022-07-13T02:44:00Z",
  "id": "03dp1p510je2b1e0jq6d72vt8d",
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  "origin": "https://dylanfitzgerald.net/blyg/",
  "page": "https://dylanfitzgerald.net/blog/include_confidence_with_estimates/",
  "transclusions": [],
  "updated": "2022-07-13T02:44:00Z",
  "version": 1
}