{
  "author": {
    "name": "Dylan Fitzgerald",
    "url": "https://dylanfitzgerald.net/"
  },
  "blyg": "0.4",
  "changelog": [
    {
      "at": "2024-08-23T21:22:00Z",
      "note": "Imported from the Ctrl+Shift archive",
      "version": 1
    }
  ],
  "content_hash": "sha256:b69b1b8d956d672df75326bc00b5cf0bfd8a3e2d58874316c44d6904054892f4",
  "content_html": "\u003ch1\u003eSame words, different meanings\u003c/h1\u003e\n\u003cstyle\u003e\n  .figure-number {\n    display: none;\n  }\n  figcaption {\n    font-size: smaller;\n  }\n\u003c/style\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe question is simple: “When do you think this will be done?”\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe technically-inclined person responsible for delivery answers with these words: “Hm. I think this will take about a week.”\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWhat they meant: “On average, this will take about a week to finish. There’s a 50% chance it’ll take longer.” In most organizations, there’s a systemic pressure towards picking a mean-time answer rather than a 90% confidence answer to avoid having one’s forecasts questioned, so even folks that understand this communication gap are subject to answering like this without much further qualification.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWhat words most non-technical folks hear: “Hm. I think this will take about a week.”\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWhat they internalize: “I’m confident this will be done in a week or less. If it goes longer, that’ll be because something went wrong, and it shouldn’t be by much.” And, similarly to with the prior framing, in most orgs there’s a systemic pressure for non-delivery folks to get as low and estimate as possible. They can plan more things, and oftentimes the blame falls on the implementors when those plans miss.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWe can point fingers who it is to blame for all this, and lament the pressures intrinsic to organizations that build and sell things.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eOr we can communicate better.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eYou can change the language of your answers and get explicit about your confidence levels:\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e“When do you think this will be done?” “Hm. I’m 50% confident it’ll take a week, and 90% confident it’ll be done in two weeks.”\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eYou can use a visual:\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003ca id=\"figure--Estigator screenshot\"\u003e\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cfigure\u003e\u003cimg src=\"https://dylanfitzgerald.net/ox-hugo/Estigator.png\"\u003e\n\u003c/figure\u003e\n\n\u003cp\u003eYou can change the language of your questions:\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cblockquote\u003e\n\u003col\u003e\n  \u003cli\u003eWhen is the soonest I could get something, if everything went perfectly and all the stars aligned? (Spoiler: they won’t.)\u003c/li\u003e\n  \u003cli\u003eAfter how long will you be embarrassed that there still isn’t something live?\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ol\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThere you go, we did it, we have a range! That didn’t hurt, did it?\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cdiv class=\"CITE\"\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e— Dan North, \u003ca href=\"https://www.linkedin.com/posts/tastapod_software-development-is-not-something-users-activity-7231253809124036610-skgm/\"\u003ehttps://www.linkedin.com/posts/tastapod_software-development-is-not-something-users-activity-7231253809124036610-skgm/\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003c/blockquote\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWhat resonates for you might differ from other folks you work with, but \u003cspan class=\"underline\"\u003eany\u003c/span\u003e of these will help turn down the heat in the room a few weeks or months hence.\u003c/p\u003e\n",
  "content_md": "# Same words, different meanings\n\n\u003cstyle\u003e\n  .figure-number {\n    display: none;\n  }\n  figcaption {\n    font-size: smaller;\n  }\n\u003c/style\u003e\n\nThe question is simple: “When do you think this will be done?”\n\nThe technically-inclined person responsible for delivery answers with these words: “Hm. I think this will take about a week.”\n\nWhat they meant: “On average, this will take about a week to finish. There’s a 50% chance it’ll take longer.” In most organizations, there’s a systemic pressure towards picking a mean-time answer rather than a 90% confidence answer to avoid having one’s forecasts questioned, so even folks that understand this communication gap are subject to answering like this without much further qualification.\n\nWhat words most non-technical folks hear: “Hm. I think this will take about a week.”\n\nWhat they internalize: “I’m confident this will be done in a week or less. If it goes longer, that’ll be because something went wrong, and it shouldn’t be by much.” And, similarly to with the prior framing, in most orgs there’s a systemic pressure for non-delivery folks to get as low and estimate as possible. They can plan more things, and oftentimes the blame falls on the implementors when those plans miss.\n\nWe can point fingers who it is to blame for all this, and lament the pressures intrinsic to organizations that build and sell things.\n\nOr we can communicate better.\n\nYou can change the language of your answers and get explicit about your confidence levels:\n\n“When do you think this will be done?” “Hm. I’m 50% confident it’ll take a week, and 90% confident it’ll be done in two weeks.”\n\nYou can use a visual:\n\n\u003ca id=\"figure--Estigator screenshot\"\u003e\u003c/a\u003e\n\n{{\u003c figure src=\"/ox-hugo/Estigator.png\" \u003e}}\n\nYou can change the language of your questions:\n\n\u003e \u003col\u003e\n\u003e   \u003cli\u003eWhen is the soonest I could get something, if everything went perfectly and all the stars aligned? (Spoiler: they won’t.)\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003e   \u003cli\u003eAfter how long will you be embarrassed that there still isn’t something live?\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003e \u003c/ol\u003e\n\u003e\n\u003e There you go, we did it, we have a range! That didn’t hurt, did it?\n\u003e\n\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CITE\"\u003e\n\u003e\n\u003e — Dan North, \u003chttps://www.linkedin.com/posts/tastapod_software-development-is-not-something-users-activity-7231253809124036610-skgm/\u003e\n\u003e\n\u003e \u003c/div\u003e\n\nWhat resonates for you might differ from other folks you work with, but \u003cspan class=\"underline\"\u003eany\u003c/span\u003e of these will help turn down the heat in the room a few weeks or months hence.",
  "created": "2024-08-23T21:22:00Z",
  "id": "1bjynb7dfvcyxyv3jrfb73cw9s",
  "kind": "thread",
  "media": [],
  "origin": "https://dylanfitzgerald.net/blyg/",
  "page": "https://dylanfitzgerald.net/blog/same-words-different-meanings/",
  "transclusions": [],
  "updated": "2024-08-23T21:22:00Z",
  "version": 1
}